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   Investment Thoughts - Academia

 

Academia

Scientific Observations on Financial Markets

 

 

 

 articles 1-10 / 101   page 1 of 11 »  
 
Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S. Exports Using Satellite Data
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, Second Quarter 2018 , Jun Nie and Amy Oksol

Investors' Personality Influences Investment Decisions: Experimental Evidence on Extraversion and Neuroticism
"The authors find that extraversion and neuroticism significantly influence individuals' behavior in the experimental asset market."
Journal of Behavioral Finance, Volume 19, 2018 - Issue 1 , Andreas Oehler, Stefan Wendt, Florian Wedlich & Matthias Horn

Archetypes as Triggers of Financial Bubbles
"The author aims to demonstrate the workings of archetypes and proposes a measurement methodology designed to capture the subliminal forces that influence investment decisions."
Journal of Behavioral Finance, Volume 18, 2017 - Issue 1 , Niklas Hageback

Explaining the High P/E Ratios: The Message from the Gordon Model
The Journal Of Investment Management, Vol. 16 No.4, 2018 , Heinz Zimmermann

The Market for Lemmings: The Herding Behavior of Pension Funds
Journal of Financial Markets, November 2017 , David Blake, Lucio Sarno, and Gabriele Zinna

Finance vs. Wal-Mart: Why are Financial Services so Expensive?
"In the absence of evidence that increased trading led to either better prices or better risk sharing, we would have to conclude that the finance industry's share of GDP is about 2 percentage points higher than it needs to be and this would represent an annual misallocation of resources of about $280 billions for the U.S. "
Thomas Philippon, New York University

Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession?
It's well known that in the United States recessions are often preceded by an inversion of the yield curve. Is there any economic rationale for this?
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Synopses, No. 30, 2018 , David Andolfatto, Andrew Spewak

Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?
"All of the wealth creation can be attributed to the thousand top-performing stocks, while the remaining 96 percent of stocks collectively matched one-month T-bills."
Arizona State University, W. P. Carey School of Business, May 2018 , Prof. Hendrik Bessembinder, Francis J. and Mary B. Labriola

Can banks individually create money out of nothing? — The theories and the empirical evidence
International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 36, December 2014 , Richard A. Werner

Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions
"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Economic Letter, August 27, 2018 , Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens


 

 

"Descriptions of the financial markets are full of imagery: bull, bears, herd instinct. And scientific theories have remarkably little traction among practitioners."

George Soros

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield