An overview and summary of market outlooks from leading financial institutions

Every year, the largest banks, asset managers and consulting firms publish their economic and market outlooks for the following year, highlighting key topics, trends, opportunities and areas of concerns. For the first time, we have used ChatGPT to skim-read through and summarize 48 of these outlook presentations and built a database, containing the various opinions expressed in the the areas that are traditionally of interest to our clients and us.

Amadeus Capital, January 5, 2024

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About this publication

Every year again, the most prestigious banks, asset managers and consultancies publish extensive market and economic outlooks highlighting key themes and convictions for the year ahead. While the half-life of these articles is debatable, to put it politely, we nevertheless believe that these publications provide a good snapshot of consensus risks and opportunities at a given point in time.

Two years ago, we, therefore, made a first effort to summarize the views expressed by a broader range of such outlook publications and published this article, which is quite interesting to reread today with the benefit of hindsight (It is especially encouraging to see that our conclusion: “The broad, bullish consensus on equities leaves us with an uneasy feeling” at the time aged rather well).

Since then, a previously hardly known company called OpenAI launched a small tool called ChatGPT that turned the internet upside down and put us in the position of repeating 2022’s exercise in a significantly more systematic way.

In other words, we took a list of 48 outlook publications, queried them on key topics surrounding economic growth and the outlook for stocks and bonds in different geographies and compiled a database containing the respective results for all publications (an accessible version in Excel, as well as the PDF versions of all publications, is available upon request).

The final summary is here in front of you, expressing the views of the aggregated consensus, not those of Amadeus, without any claim to completeness.

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