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Macro Observations

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

 

 

 

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Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession?
It's well known that in the United States recessions are often preceded by an inversion of the yield curve. Is there any economic rationale for this?
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Synopses, No. 30, 2018 , David Andolfatto, Andrew Spewak

The history (and future) of inflation ...
It may not feel like it, but we live in inflationary times relative to long-term history.
Deutsche Bank, Thematic Research, September 19, 2018 , Jim Reid, Craig Nicol, Nick Burns, Sahil Mahtani

Notes on The Bitcoin Standard
"Bitcoin, as designed, is deflationary."
Man on the Margin, July 16, 2018 , Michael Kendall

The Oxymoron of World Trade
Oxymorons are powerful combinations of contradictory meanings. We encounter oxymorons in every human form of expression attempting a description of reality, whether it be in works of tragedy (“fearful bravery” in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar), in our daily lives (work that is “almost done”), or even in the projected future of human societies (“artificial intelligence”).
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, September 2018 , Didier Darcet

Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions
"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Economic Letter, August 27, 2018 , Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens

A monopoly on liquidity
"The board game Monopoly® was originally invented by Elizabeth Magie, under the name “The Landlord’s Game”, as a means of demonstrating the evils of rentier capitalism. Originally, there were two sets of rules — essentially, socialism (where the rewards for development were shared by all) and capitalism (where the rewards accrue to the monopolist, who crushes all opponents) — the purpose being to show the moral superiority of the first set."
Fathom Consulting, Thank Fathom it's Friday, 16 March 2018 , Erik Britton

Lonely Bytes – Cryptocurrencies & The Future of Money:
A New Technology Solution Desperately Seeking A Problem?
CrossBorder Capital, March 13, 2018 , Michael Howell

The Questions for the Coming Year
"As Charles has shown over the years, this is the best combination for equity markets, as tight fiscal policy and loose money almost invariably leads to far higher P/E ratios. Alas, the opposite is true for the reverse: loose fiscal policy and tight money typically trigger a de-rating of equity markets. And this is the policy mix we seem to be heading towards."
Gavekal Research, December 15, 2017 , Louis-Vincent Gave

The Rise of the Yuan and The End of the Oil Exchange Standard
"Global currencies don’t so much fail as they are eclipsed by a stronger competitor."
CrossBorder Capital, November 29, 2017 , Michael Howell

Data Brand Dependence
If it is a day ending in “y” you can be sure there is somewhere in the financial press a story or “news report” of the looming bond selloff – even if it is due to some future event or made up phenomenon.
Alhambra Investment Partners, November 9, 2017 , Jeffrey P. Snider