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Macro Observations

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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Payrolls Like GDP: Headlines Good, Underneath Really, Really Not
If the unemployment rate reaches zero and wages still donít explode higher, the economy falls off, will Economists, central bankers, and the media stop relying on this one statistic for overall economic interpretation?
Alhambra Investment Partners, May 3rd, 2019 , Jeffrey P. Snider

Central Banks Are Messing with Your Head
By directly influencing peoples' valuation scales through the manipulation of market interest rates, central banks affect every aspect of peoples' lives. It amounts to a "Revaluation of all Values", to use a term coined by the German philosopher Frederick Nietzsche.
Mises Institute, 03/21/2019 , Thorsten Polleit

Part 2: Our Evaluation of the Global Economic Cycle
The Bearish View of the Global Economic Cycle
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, April 10 2019 , Anujeet Sareen, CFA, Portfolio Manager

Part 1: Our Evaluation of the Global Economic Cycle
The Bullish View of the Global Economic Cycle
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, April 3 2019 , Anujeet Sareen, CFA, Portfolio Manager

Clash of Empires: Currencies and Power in a Multipolar World
Empires usually start off as road-building exercises. Which explains why, in Europe, everyone says that ďall roads lead to RomeĒ. And when they donít build roads, empires build canals: the French built the Suez Canal (only to see the British buy Egyptís stake once the hard work had been done), the Americans built the Panama Canal and, less happily, the Soviets built the Aral Sea Canals (which ended up triggering one of the greatest ecological disasters of all time).
Gavekal, March 2019 , by Charles Gave & Louis-Vincent Gave

Chinaís Gangbusters Loan Growth
China likes doing things on a grand scale; its recent stimulus is no exception.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 03/04/2019 , Editorial Staff

The Broken Window Fallacy
"In 1850, the French economist Frederic Bastiat introduces the concept of opportunity cost with a fallacy in Chapter I of his book ďCe quíon voit et ce quíon ne voit pasĒ (What we see and what we donít see). In Bastiatís tale, a manís son breaks a pane of glass, which ultimately stimulates the economy."
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, February 2019 , Didier Darcet

Shallower Cycles?
"Less vigorous expansions spread over longer periods would entail a fundamental change in the risk/return dynamics of markets and a resulting shift in expectations."
Lobnek Wealth Management, February 2019 , Altug Ulkumen

Economics Is Easy When You Donít Have To Try
The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Donít even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results.
Alhambra Investment Partners, December 7, 2018 , Jeffrey P. Snider

Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession?
It's well known that in the United States recessions are often preceded by an inversion of the yield curve. Is there any economic rationale for this?
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Synopses, No. 30, 2018 , David Andolfatto, Andrew Spewak