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Capital Markets

Current Observations on Asset Classes



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Don’t Speak Fedspeak
The Fed’s words are just that—not actions—and its words are squishy. Two other words many Fed observers love to cite as gospel: “data dependent.” As in, the Fed’s monetary policy will be “data dependent.”
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 05/15/2019 , Editorial Staff

Investors' Personality Influences Investment Decisions: Experimental Evidence on Extraversion and Neuroticism
"The authors find that extraversion and neuroticism significantly influence individuals' behavior in the experimental asset market."
Journal of Behavioral Finance, Volume 19, 2018 - Issue 1 , Andreas Oehler, Stefan Wendt, Florian Wedlich & Matthias Horn

Investors and the French Revolution
"Few people realize how active the Paris stock market was during the 1700s. The Paris stock exchange was founded on September 24, 1724, though shares in the French East India Co. (Compagnie des Indes) had traded in Paris for years."
Global Financial Data, 17 April 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

Archetypes as Triggers of Financial Bubbles
"The author aims to demonstrate the workings of archetypes and proposes a measurement methodology designed to capture the subliminal forces that influence investment decisions."
Journal of Behavioral Finance, Volume 18, 2017 - Issue 1 , Niklas Hageback

750 Years of Interest Rates
"With these two charts, you can see how unusual the current decline in interest rates is, pushing yields down to levels that hadn’t been reached during the past seven centuries."
Global Financial Data, 3 March 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

Explaining the High P/E Ratios: The Message from the Gordon Model
The Journal Of Investment Management, Vol. 16 No.4, 2018 , Heinz Zimmermann

I Get Knocked Down, Then I Get Knocked Down Again…
When Will Value Investing Get Back Up?
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, March 25 2019 , Patrick S. Kaser, CFA

10 Years of Slow Growth Fears
Growth slowdown fears appear omnipresent these days as investors worry this long global economic expansion is on the wane. But slowish growth isn’t a bull market killer—as stocks’ overall rise over the last decade attests.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 03/25/2019 , Editorial Staff

Gold in Perspective
"There is no doubt that violating Federal Law and holding gold would have underperformed a diversified portfolio of stocks. However, the appropriate comparison is what cash, net of income tax, would have returned over this period. And here again calculating that is trickier than one might expect, because hundreds of banks failed in the 1930's and there was no FDIC insurance. And the Treasury didn't begin auctioning Tbills until 1929!"
Daily Speculations, March 6, 2019 , Larry Williams, Rocky Humbert

The Turkey
Remember Le Fevre's the "Turkey" in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. The young guy told him, sell, take your profit. The Turkey says: "It's a bull market. I don't want to lose my position."
Daily Speculations, February 16, 2019 , Jim Sogi