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Investment Thoughts

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy



 articles 1-10 / 739   page 1 of 74 »  
Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S. Exports Using Satellite Data
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, Second Quarter 2018 , Jun Nie and Amy Oksol

Quick Hit: Digging Into US and European Returns
A look at recent market returns on a geographical basis—and how sector weights may skew your view of them.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 07/17/2019 , Editorial Staff

Inflation Expectations and Actual Inflation: 1998 - 2018
Chart excerpt from the article "Has the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations Changed in the United States during the Past Decade?"
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, First Quarter 2018 , Taeyoung Doh and Amy Oksol

Time is running out to solve China’s debt bubble
Many investors are focused on the outlook for trade talks with the US, fearing an all-out trade war which would negatively impact global, and especially Chinese, equity markets. But investors underestimate the mounting problems caused by the recent rapid expansion of credit in China. Only radical solutions now remain to resolve the country’s growing credit bubble.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments, July 2019 , Paul Smillie, Senior Investment Analyst

Market expectations for policy rates have shifted dramatically
FOMC policy expectations (OIS)
Aviva Investors, What our House View means for asset allocation and portfolio construction, July 2019 , David Nowakowski

Not all households have reduced debt levels
Ratio of household debt to disposable income
Aviva Investors, The five key themes and risks our House View team expect to drive financial markets, July 2019 , Stewart Robertson

Target Balances in the Euro zone.
Cumulated German surplus with the rest of the Euro zone.
Institut des Libertés, Et voila! L’Allemagne va mal, July 1, 2019 , Charles Gave

The eurozone’s Japanification - more to come
With the eurozone economy stuck in a low growth, low inflation and low rates environment, it's really hard not to make 'Japanification' comparisons. If we're honest, the eurozone is probably already in the thick of it, which means rates are likely to remain lower for longer and every new crisis or recession will bring the bloc closer to more Japanification.
ING, 24th June 2019 , Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist ING Germany; Inga Fechner, Economist, Germany, Austria

The quest for ‘uncorrelated’ returns. The fall (and rise?) of absolute return funds
The quest for uncorrelated returns can be an expensive pursuit, especially in terms of opportunity cost.
M&G Investments, Episode, 11 June 2019 , Stuart Canning

The Big Bang: Indexing China’s Onshore Bond Market
"Bond portfolio inflows are likely to be a critical funding source for China’s potential current account deficit, with both foreign private and reserve investors poised to raise exposure to China’s onshore bond market. By changing the composition of some of the bond market’s preeminent indices, there will be implications for bond investors, rates, and currencies."
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, May 28 2019 , Tracy Chen, CFA, CAIA