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Investment†Thoughts

Non-Linear Views on Financial Markets and the Economy

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Clash of Empires: Currencies and Power in a Multipolar World
Empires usually start off as road-building exercises. Which explains why, in Europe, everyone says that ďall roads lead to RomeĒ. And when they donít build roads, empires build canals: the French built the Suez Canal (only to see the British buy Egyptís stake once the hard work had been done), the Americans built the Panama Canal and, less happily, the Soviets built the Aral Sea Canals (which ended up triggering one of the greatest ecological disasters of all time).
Gavekal, March 2019 , by Charles Gave & Louis-Vincent Gave

Chinaís Gangbusters Loan Growth
China likes doing things on a grand scale; its recent stimulus is no exception.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 03/04/2019 , Editorial Staff

David Bowie and the Internet vs. "Itís just a tool though, isnít it ?" and "itís simply a different delivery system".
Excerpt
David Bowie speaks to Jeremy Paxman on BBC Newsnight, 1999

A Century of Chinese Stocks and Bonds
"London was the financial center of the world until World War II, and many companies in emerging markets listed their shares on the London Stock Exchange before a stock exchange even existed in that country. After World War I, many companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange."
Global Financial Data, 4 January 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

The Broken Window Fallacy
"In 1850, the French economist Frederic Bastiat introduces the concept of opportunity cost with a fallacy in Chapter I of his book ďCe quíon voit et ce quíon ne voit pasĒ (What we see and what we donít see). In Bastiatís tale, a manís son breaks a pane of glass, which ultimately stimulates the economy."
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, February 2019 , Didier Darcet

The Evolution of Swiss Institutional Investor Portfolios
1920 - 2017
Corestone Investment Managers, 2018

The Scandinavian Monetary Union of 1873
Together with the Latin Monetary Union of 1865, another example of a monetary union that didn't go quite as planned and ended before its 50th Birthday.
InvestmentOffice, February 2019

Shallower Cycles?
"Less vigorous expansions spread over longer periods would entail a fundamental change in the risk/return dynamics of markets and a resulting shift in expectations."
Lobnek Wealth Management, February 2019 , Altug Ulkumen

Events in Time Anniversaries: January 2019
25 years ago: January 1994 50 years ago: January 1969 100 years ago: January 1919 200 years ago: January 1819 300 years ago: January 1719
Global Financial Data, 22 January 2019 , Dr. Brian Taylor

US Banks Havenít Behaved Like This Since 2009
If there is one thing Ben Bernanke got right, it was this.
Alhambra Investment Partners, December 11, 2018 , Jeffrey P. Snider